Quarterbacks
Start: Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars)
This is the year of destiny for The Prince Who Was Promised. Jacksonville signed Travis Hunter with the No. 2 overall pick, signed Dyami Brown, drafted Bhayshul Tuten, and recruited head coach Liam Coen following his explosive year as Tampa Bay OC. Lawrence faces a fantasy game of matchups against a Panthers D ranked 31st by EPA per dropback last year. Vegas is anticipating 25 Jaguars points — wheels up.
Start: Bryce Young (Panthers)
A sneaky Superflex plays in the same game. Jacksonville’s defense was even worse than Carolina’s last year, ranking dead last in pass defense efficiency. Young turned a corner after returning from the bench in Week 8 and was top 10 in EPA/play and CPOE after the Week 12 bye.
Sit: Caleb Williams (Bears)
Tough week 1 for the rookie against the blitz-prone Vikings of Brian Flores (55% blitz rate). Williams struggled against pressure last season: 22nd in YPA, 23rd in completion rate against blitz, and last in accurate throw rate (44.9%).
Sit: Justin Fields (Jets)
As enjoyable as Fields is in best ball, Vegas is simply projecting the Jets for 17.5 points — the week’s second-lowest — so the Steelers D has familiarity with him, does the better job of limiting scramble attempts of anyone, and a Week 2 game against Buffalo will be considerably more appealing.
Running Backs
Start: James Conner (Cardinals)
Arizona is a heavy favorite, and Conner remains their clear RB1, handling 67% of red-zone touches last year (6th-highest in NFL). Against a Saints defense that allowed the 7th-most RB fantasy points in 2024, he’s a smash start.
Start: Chase Brown (Bengals)
Exceptions aside due to Season-Long Outlook concerns, Week 1 presents perfectly. Cincinnati enters Week 1 as a 4.5-point spread favourite against Cleveland with the highest implied point total on the board (26.5). Look for a favourable narrative and lots of work.
Sit: Tyrone Tracy (Giants)
Closing the book on the expected game of playing behind against a tough opponent, Tracy has very little pass-catching upside (57th of 59 graded RBs last year in receiving). Two-back in the projected blowout? Pass.
Sit: Kaleb Johnson (Steelers)
Behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, who has just signed an extension and been labeled the “featured runner” by Mike Tomlin. Johnson is a stash, not a start.
Wide Receivers
Start: Matthew Golden ((Packers)
Both of these rookies you have to start immediately. Golden is already coming out as Green Bay’s WR1 with Christian Watson hurt and a 47.5-point game against Detroit.
Start: Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers)
With Mike Evans’ lead possession target, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, and possibly Cade Otton gone, the rookie assumes a high-volume role opposite Mike Evans. The Falcons were 25th in EPA/dropback against — perfect position for the rookie.
Sit: Cooper Kupp (Seahawks)
Still productive in the slot (1.9 YPRR), but he shares time there with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the league last year in slot production. The smaller role puts him out of WR3 range.
Sit: Luther Burden (Bears)
Long-term upside prospect, buried on the depth chart entering the year behind Olamide Zaccheus. Appears at a part-time, utility role entering the year.
Tight Ends
Start: Zach Ertz (Commanders)
A touchdowns-dependent streamer, Washington has the highest implied score and faces a team that struggled against TE last year in the Giants.
Start: David Njoku (Browns)
A proven producer without Deshaun Watson (15.1 PPR/game). Joe Flacco starts against a Bengals defense that gave up the most TE fantasy points in 2024.
Sit: Tucker Kraft (Packers) Bad pairing – Lions yielded the fewest fantasy TE points last year. Green Bay funnels production to WRs, not TEs.
Sit: Colston Loveland (Bears)
Promising rookie, but currently in a timeshare with Cole Kmet. Historical red flags for rookie TEs apply here. Don’t start.